2025 Year in Review: Checking Back In On Our Beer Stories to Watch For in 2025
Last January, I put together a list of major industry stories to monitor over the course of 2025. It’s time to check in and see what actually happened. In a surprising twist, not everything was as bad as I anticipated! Read on to learn what I got right (and wrong) in 2025.
Tariffs
Tariffs may have been the defining story of the year for the brewing industry. While many of Trump’s proposed tariffs went through multiple will-he-won’t-he phases, tariffs on aluminum and steel stayed in place. Aluminum tariffs were raised to 25% in March and jumped again to 50% in June (with an exemption for U.K. imports that kept them at 25%). While commodity prices for aluminum cans did not significantly increase in 2025, a Beer Institute study estimates that the original Section 232 aluminum tariff of 10% that was implemented in June 2018 has cost the U.S. beverage industry $1.416 billion so far. The 500% increase on that tariff is already straining big brewers like Modelo owner Constellation, which blamed Trump’s tariff and immigration policies for falling short of their sales and profit estimates in the first quarter. Craft breweries had extremely variable experiences with can prices regionally, but the consensus is that higher aluminum costs are making it harder for breweries to stay afloat.
Nutrition Guideline Changes
The USDA finally released updated nutrition guidelines on January 7th. While more attention was given to the flipped food pyramid, the more important development for beer was the removal of drink limits. New guidelines replace the decades-old one drink per day for women, two drinks per day for men recommendation to a broader suggestion to limit alcohol consumption. The new recommendations run counter to a suggestion by the previous surgeon general that alcoholic beverages should carry a cancer warning. The Brewers Association celebrated the news, saying in a press release that beer “remains the beverage of moderation.”
Austin Brewery Changes
Despite my concern that more closures were on the horizon, the total number of breweries in Austin city limits has stayed steady, with one closure (Black Star Co-op) and one opening (Handsome Dan’s). Looking to the larger Central Texas area, there have been 16 new breweries that have opened and three expansions against five closures. More openings are expected in 2026, though only the Alright Brewing Co. (which has been rumored to be opening soon since at least 2023) is in Austin proper.
New Releases vs. Core Lineups
One of my tougher to pin down predictions was that we might see fewer new releases in 2025 as ingredient costs increase and demand changes. Thanks to some great Untappd research by CBA’s resident data scientist Caleb Hoffman, we can actually put some numbers to this theory. In 2025, there were 1,348 newly entered beers on Untappd across Central Texas, down from 1,715 releases in 2024. This 21% decrease in new releases despite the net number of breweries increasing in the region suggests that breweries are scaling back and sticking to core offerings.
What to Watch for in 2026
Honestly, your guess is as good as mine. There are no looming federal regulatory changes to the beer industry, though the Brewers Association has a full docket of state-level considerations already lined up for 2026. Locally, it seems like there’s a steady stream of openings in more rural and affordable areas of Central Texas but almost nothing new happening within Austin city limits. Here’s hoping for some good new breweries and beers in 2026!
