Year in Preview: Craft Beer Stories to Watch Out For in 2025
Originally published 1/2/2025
2024 was a tempestuous year for craft beer in Central Texas and across the country. What will 2025 hold? Below are some of the local and national developments that the Craft Beer Austin team will be watching for:
Tariffs could drive up costs for craft brewers…
In December, President-Elect Trump announced his intention to place a 25% percent tariff on goods and products from Canada and Mexico once he is sworn in on January 20th. The tariffs are intended to create pressure for the U.S.’s two neighbors to control the flow of illicit drugs and illegal immigrants, but they would drive up costs and create complexities for dozens of domestic industries, including craft brewing. Canada grew 9.6 million tons of barley in 2023, making it the third-largest barley producer in the world and more than doubling U.S. production. While exact numbers aren’t available, the Brewers Association says that “a significant amount” of the malted barley that American craft brewers use is grown and processed in Canada. Due to previous tariffs that Canada was exempted from, the country also produces the majority of the aluminum cans used in the U.S. Aluminum can prices spiked when tariffs were introduced and would go much higher. The BA’s Senior Director of Federal Affairs Katie Marisic also identifies bottle caps made in Mexico and foreign-made equipment and parts as industry essentials whose prices would soar under the Trump tariffs.
…But they could also create opportunities for craft Mexican lagers.
Tariffs on Mexico and Canada will drive up costs for American brewers, but they will also dramatically increase prices on imported beer. The top-selling beer in the U.S. in 2023 and 2024 was Modelo Especial, which is only made in Mexico due to a 2013 settlement with the Department of Justice. Modelo’s U.S. owner Constellation Brands also owns the rights to Corona, Pacifico, and Victoria, brands that are also only made in Mexico. Rival big brewers are already preparing to compete with the more expensive imports, most notably Molson Coors’ acquisition of Mexico-themed Chicago brewery Cruz Blanca. At the same time, Mexican-style lagers have become more and more of a mainstay for craft brewers. Inflated prices and macro-brewed knockoffs might push some consumers to drink more craft lagers.
Nutrition Guideline changes loom large for the alcohol industry…
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to finalize updated Nutrition Guidelines in 2025. The guidelines cover everything from the food pyramid to recommendations on sodium intake and are extremely influential in what Americans eat and drink. More and more scientific evidence suggests that even drinking in moderation increases the risk of several cancers and other negative health outcomes. The alcoholic beverage industry has struggled to put forward a unified front when lobbying the USDA and other government agencies in the past. Having alcoholic codified as unhealthy and dangerous could dramatically change consumer behavior and hurt the entire industry.
…but current trends might soften the blow for craft brewers.
While the USDA declaring that no amount of alcohol consumption is safe would be devastating for the alcohol industry at large, it would only reinforce current consumer trends toward non-alcoholic and “mindful” adult beverages. Non-alcoholic beer and hop water are already having a moment in the craft beer world, positioning the craft portion of the beer industry to better weather the potential storm of guideline changes.
The Austin brewery scene is likely to shrink…
2024 was a tough year for brewers in and around Austin, with a steady drumbeat of closures. While there are some silver linings from the national stories mentioned above, increased costs and decreased consumer interest will make running a profitable brewery even harder in Central Texas. High interest rates and expensive real estate also increase the bar to entry for new breweries, which are increasingly rare within Austin city limits.
…But contract brewing may keep some Central Texas brands around.
2025 may be a uniquely difficult moment for keeping a taproom open and producing. However, many local brewers are circumventing this problem by having someone else brew their beer or cider. Family Business and Fairweather Cider both closed their taprooms in 2024, but while they search for new locations their products are still available on draft and in cans. While contract brewing won’t insulate craft brands from materials tariffs, it does allow them to bridge moves or financial difficulties without completely disappearing.
Higher costs may mean fewer new releases…
New beer releases are one of the biggest drivers of business for taproom-focused breweries, but they are also expensive and can have lower margins depending on ingredients, fermentation time, etc. For larger breweries that distribute outside of their own taproom, higher can costs and expensive TABC licensing will likely reduce the number of seasonal and limited release cans in distribution around Central Texas.
…But a re-emphasis on core lineups might lead to better beer.
While new release mania has been a major part of craft brewing for decades, more and more brewers are bucking the trend and focusing on making a handful of excellent beers rather than a bushel of mediocre ones. Not everyone can be as minimalist as Maine’s Sacred Profane Brewery, but refining and improving core recipes might help Central Texas breweries stay in business and even win awards.
